Cautious Optimism Despite Hotter Inflation…

It’s been two weeks since our last commentary check in, and a lot has happened in the meantime.

Before I get into why I disagree with the idea that this is the start of the next leg lower, let’s revisit some of the major events.

Over the past two weeks, we’ve now had three big reports all showing hotter-than-expected inflation.

Both CPI and PPI reported rising month-over-month prices, as well as annual price increases that were larger than economists had expected.

Then, last week, the Fed minutes from the February meeting were released. And a third inflation indicator (and the Fed’s favorite) – the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) index – also came in hotter than anyone was expecting.

And more Fed officials publicly voiced their concerns that inflation remains too high.

All of this is bad news for the bulls. And yet…

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