The Fed has aggressively increased the interest rates seven times since last March to curb the multi-decade high inflation. The current Fed funds rate is between 4.25% and 4.5%.
While the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates to the highest level in 15 years, December’s jobs report showed the labor market remained strong, with nonfarm payrolls increasing by 223,000 and, on an unrounded basis, the unemployment rate coming in at 3.468%, the lowest since 1969.
Kansas City Federal Reserve leader Esther George said she believes the Fed will need to lift the federal funds rate target from the current rate to over 5% and stay there until the signs that inflation is really convincingly starting to fall back toward its 2% goal.
Furthermore, as per DataTrek, the gap between the yield on the two and 10-year Treasury notes is the widest it has been for about four decades. It’s the steepest inversion since the early 1980s and a potential grim omen for the economy, as an inverted yield curve has been a reliable indicator of a recession.
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